The logic seems straightforward: fewer tailpipe emissions mean less CO₂. But when you dig into the numbers, the picture gets a lot more complicated. A respected transportation economist has crunched the data—and the conclusions aren't exactly flattering for the current approach.
A Big Goal with Modest Results
Even if you accept that climate change is a major challenge and human activity plays a significant role, the key question remains: is the chosen strategy delivering? From a U.S. perspective, the answer is far from clear. Personal transportation contributes such a small share of global CO₂ emissions that even eliminating it entirely wouldn't solve the problem on a worldwide scale.
Nevertheless, the federal government has poured billions into EV tax credits and incentives in recent years. When you factor in state programs and other benefits, the total investment runs into the tens of billions over the past decade.
How Many EVs Did We Get for That Money?
Here's where it gets interesting. Despite all these incentives, there are still fewer than 5 million fully electric vehicles on U.S. roads. That's less than 2% of the total fleet, which stands at around 290 million vehicles. The impact remains limited.
But the real issue isn't just the numbers—it's the efficiency. Given the current U.S. energy mix, where electricity isn't always from renewable sources, the emissions reductions are quite modest.
The Cost of One Ton of CO₂
Analyses show that reducing emissions through EV incentives costs significantly more than alternative approaches. The effective price per ton of CO₂ avoided can run into the hundreds of dollars—far higher than other carbon reduction strategies.
The Power Grid Isn't Helping Much Either
Another challenging factor is the electricity supply. The U.S. grid relies heavily on natural gas and coal in many regions, and transmitting power adds to the overall carbon footprint. As a result, some of the promised "green" benefits of EVs get lost along the way from power plant to charger.
New Incentives and Lingering Questions
Despite these concerns, federal tax credits of up to $7,500 were available for qualifying buyers through September 2025. Households across a wide income range could benefit, though the credits often went to those who could afford EVs anyway.
For example: a comparable compact EV like the Chevrolet Bolt starts around $28,000, with a battery around 65 kWh and an estimated range of about 259 miles. Not the most obvious family hauler, and hardly budget-friendly even with government help.
Oriented market price in the United States: $35,000–$45,000 for similar compact EVs.
A Straightforward Conclusion
Even with incentives driving hundreds of thousands of additional EV sales, it's still a drop in the ocean compared to the overall fleet. And many buyers would have gone electric without the extra push.
Ultimately, it feels like a lot of money is being spent for headlines and sales figures rather than meaningful emissions cuts. You don't need to be an economist to see that—just look at the results.
